2017 MLB Playoff Predictions on Model 284

I’m applying by Poisson Maximum Likelihood model to the 2017 playoffs on Model 284. Here are some links:

Advertisements
2017 MLB Playoff Predictions on Model 284

Pitcher Similarity Score Methodology

Note: this project was done in conjunction with Marc Richards. It was originally published on Model 284 here. You can also find a tool for visualizing any pitcher’s most similar counterparts on Model 284 here.

Why Pitcher Similarity Scores?

Similarity scores, at their best, are a fun and useful way to understand patterns in athletes. We’ve dabbled in similarity scores here at Model 284 before, and now we’re applying it to Major League Baseball pitchers. Our motivation for this project is twofold.

Continue reading “Pitcher Similarity Score Methodology”

Pitcher Similarity Score Methodology

Twins Rotation Preview: Tyler Duffey and Jose Berrios

Previous installments in this series:

The Twins play their first game on Monday, so it’s time to wrap up our Twins rotation preview. On Thursday, it was announced that Adalberto Mejia will be the team’s fifth starter coming out of camp. Mejia is an exciting young prospect, but he has only pitched 2.1 innings of Major League ball. That’s not a lot of available PITCHf/x data. Rather than subjecting you to a deep dive into each of his 41 pitches for the Twins last year, we’re going a different route for our last preview.

Continue reading “Twins Rotation Preview: Tyler Duffey and Jose Berrios”

Twins Rotation Preview: Tyler Duffey and Jose Berrios

Twins Rotation Preview: Hector Santiago

Previous installments in this series:

This week, we continue our Twins rotation preview by taking a look at Hector Santiago. Acquired from the Angels midseason last year, he figures to be a fixture in the Twins rotation for the 2017 season. It’s a good week to brush up on your Santiago knowledge, because you’ll probably be able to see him pitch in a meaningful game within the next couple of days! He’s on the Puerto Rican roster for the World Baseball Classic, and they’re playing three games in a row: they face Venezuela today, Mexico tomorrow, and Italy on Sunday.

Continue reading “Twins Rotation Preview: Hector Santiago”

Twins Rotation Preview: Hector Santiago

Twins Rotation Preview: Kyle Gibson

Note: this article can also be found on Model 284 here.

This week, we continue our series on the Twins starting staff by taking a look at Kyle Gibson. For the series introduction and the first installment on Ervin Santana, look here.

Gibson’s 2016 season was a bit of a step backward; from 2015 to 2016, his ERA jumped from 3.84 to 5.07, and his FIP increased from 3.96 to 4.70. Nevertheless, Gibson is a lock for the 2017 rotation, and will try to bounce back. Let’s take a look at the tools he’ll use to do it.

Continue reading “Twins Rotation Preview: Kyle Gibson”

Twins Rotation Preview: Kyle Gibson